Fantasy football is both a blessing and a curse. It is my favorite aspect of the NFL season, offering yet another point of interest to one of the most exciting sports leagues and a sense of control to a medium that rarely has one.
With every fantasy season comes an unprecedented amount of emotional suffering. Being the passionate NFL watcher that I am, the successes of my fantasy teams directly impact my mental stability on a week-to-week basis – when my teams win, I am over the moon; when they lose, I am capable of destroying everything in my apartment.
The most important part of every fantasy season is its start, the draft. In preparation, I spend hours on end conducting extensive research on each promising fantasy prospect, thinking I will finally crack the NFL’s impenetrable code and draft a perfect fantasy roster. Unfortunately, I never do.
The NFL is chaos and chaos is impossible to predict. But in all the pain and suffering of the fantasy football season, there are always a few things I can rest my pride on. Last year, it was players like Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs and Keenan Allen, each of whom I relentlessly championed in the preseason before watching them dominate week after week.
This year, I have a new group of fantasy crushes. On this list, I detail four players I am confident will outperform their average draft position (ADP) in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
RB James Conner (Arizona Cardinals)
In the 16 games that James Conner and Kyler Murray have both started and played at least 40% of offensive snaps together, Conner has averaged 18 PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) – enough to finish as a top-five running back in each of the last four seasons. The Cardinals’ record in these games was 5-11.
Now, I am of the opinion that the Cardinals may be better than expected this season, especially regarding their offense. However, they do not need to be competitive for Conner to succeed; rather, their competitiveness will be a bonus. Since joining the Cardinals in 2021, Conner has finished fifth, 19th and 18th among running backs in his three seasons, all while missing at least two games in each. Despite that, his current ADP among RBs is 19.
The issue with Conner is the same as always – health. In his seven-year career, Conner has missed 24 games, despite never missing more than six in any one season. He is also 29 years old, an age that does not historically bode well for RBs (only 5.43 percent of respectable fantasy RBs have their most productive season at age 29). As a result, many are hypothesizing that Conner will see a decrease in usage this year, especially when considering that the team drafted a RB, Trey Benson, in the third round of the 2024 draft.
However, since 2019, only 35% of third-round-drafted RBs have surpassed 150 touches in their first season (Conner’s backups had a combined 170 last year). Furthermore, Conner is coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign and his most efficient season ever, earning an 89.2 grade on PFF (fourth-highest among RBs) and averaging five yards per carry (sixth among RBs). In other words, Conner is too good to be replaced by a rookie.
WR Tank Dell (Houston Texans)
Since 2014, there have been just nine rookie wide receivers to average 15 or more FPPG in PPR. Of the seven that were not rookies in 2023, only one of them, Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers), failed to eclipse 1,000 yards the following season, though he would manage to do so in both his third and fourth.
Texans WR Tank Dell was one of two rookie receivers to reach the 15 FPPG clip in 2023. Dell caught 47 passes for 709 yards and seven TDs despite only playing in 11 games. Prior to his season-ending injury in Week 13, Dell was coming off a four-game stretch in which he scored five TDs and averaged 23.7 FPPG.
In the eight games in which Dell was on the field for more than half of the team’s offensive snaps, the Texans averaged 26.4 points per game (PPG), 4.2 PPG above their season average. It is safe to say that Dell’s impact on the Texans’ offense was both significant and irreplaceable.
However, going into this season, Dell’s ADP among WRs is a modest 29, primarily due to the team’s offseason acquisition of star WR Stefon Diggs. The arrival of Diggs has led many to believe that Dell will become the third option in the offense, and the last time any team had three WRs with top-25 fantasy finishes at their position was in 2020 – with both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers.
But why is everyone so quick to assume that Dell is the third option? Diggs is going to be 31 in November and is coming off his worst fantasy season since joining the Buffalo Bills in 2020. To make matters worse, in his last 10 games (playoffs included), Diggs averaged just 9.6 FPPG.
Dell is a young, dynamic and one-of-a-kind receiver who already has blossoming chemistry with the Texans’ star quarterback, C.J. Stroud – if you do not believe me, check out some of his rookie tapes. The addition of someone like Diggs should only occasionally cut into Dell’s production, if not allow Dell more opportunities downfield.
WR Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)
Rashee Rice was a great value last year, finishing 41 wide receiver spots higher than his preseason ADP in PPR leagues. This year, his situation is a bit more complicated. Rice is facing the potential of a lengthy suspension after being both the perpetrator of a reckless driving incident and an alleged assault earlier in the offseason. To add to that, the Chiefs have more options at WR this year, having acquired former 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and speedster first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy.
As a result, Rice is currently being drafted 34th among WRs. But considering that his suspension will almost certainly be pushed back to next year, there is hardly any legitimate reasoning for Rice’s low draft stock. He is a proven, talented receiver heading into his second season and he plays on one of the most prolific offenses in football.
Since Tyreek Hill’s departure in 2022, there have been countless WRs to join the Chiefs with high expectations and then severely underperform – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney, to name a few. Rice is the only one who has overperformed. Last year, in his final six regular season performances, Rice averaged 18.5 FPPG. He also finished the year at 11th in red zone targets, with 22 (accounting for all seven of his TDs).
Finally, the Chiefs will almost certainly have an improved offense from last year. In Patrick Mahomes’ six years as the team’s starting QB, 2023 was the first season in which the Chiefs scored fewer than 450 points (they scored only 371.) In all likelihood, that was an anomaly, and they will be much closer to the totals they consistently demonstrated in years prior, meaning that Rice will get even more opportunities in the red zone.
QB Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
Every year, I set my sights on a young, dual-threat quarterback on the verge of either a monumental break-through or catastrophic failure. In 2022, it was Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who finished third at his position after sporting an ADP of six. On the flip side, last year, it was then-Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, who took a massive step back from the previous year, finishing at a measly 18th among QBs.
This year, it is Colts QB Anthony Richardson, whose current ADP is sixth among QBs. The second-year signal caller may have only started four games last year, but in those games, he averaged a touchdown every 24.7 snaps (more than the league’s top-scoring QB, Josh Allen, at a TD every 25.6) and averaged a rushing yard every 1.272 snaps (just shy of the league’s top rushing QB, Lamar Jackson, at a yard every 1.267).
Second-year QBs are also historically primed for breakout seasons. Since 2016, every year there has been at least one sophomore QB in the top six of the position’s fantasy leaderboard (from 2018 to 2021, one was consistently in the top two.)
Plus, Richardson is in an ideal situation to succeed. His team is coming off a 6.3 points-per-game (PPG) improvement from 2022 to 2023 and his head coach, Shane Steichen, was not only the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers during Justin Herbert’s 36 TD rookie campaign, but also for the Philadelphia Eagles during Jalen Hurts’ 35 TD third-year effort.
If there’s any reason to doubt Richardson outside mere sample size, it is the fact that he suffered both a concussion and a season-ending AC sprain in 2023. Unfortunately, injuries are unpredictable, and I cannot guarantee that he won’t miss more time. But considering that Richardson is a 6’4”, 244-pound freak of nature, fronted by Pro Football Focus’ third ranked offensive line, there is more than enough reason to believe that he will be fine.